Climate Change: A Catalyst for Conflict

Until recently, ‘the dimension of climate change associated conflict has so far received little attention’, however I feel it necessary to bring such analyses into the domestic domain. Therefore, in this Blog I will be drawing on two complementary studies by Bowles et al (2015) and Kelly et al (2015) in order to heighten the very real consequences anthropogenic climate change has on civil society, challenge those who believe it’s all just a hoax and emphasise the urgency for effective climate mitigation through a different lens.

Conflict, as an ‘indirect pathway’ dictated by climate change, has been studied by political and social scientists and is deemed by many as the most important (Bowles et al., 2015).

As pressure on and the instability of natural resources under extreme climatic events increases - such as prolonged drought and frequent flooding - geopolitical strength is challenged as governments struggle to provide for their citizens; holding the capacity to ‘test or rupture social fabrics and resilience’ and stimulate violent outbursts (Bowles et al., 2015).

To place this argument into more meaningful context, Bowles et al (2015) and Kelley et al (2015) study the conflict in Syria through the lens of the severe 2007-2010 drought experienced by the Fertile Crescent; labelling it a ‘fertile breeding ground for discontent’. 

Graph showing the mean winter precipitation,surface temperature and total population in Syria(1900-2015)

As an agricultural region reliant on annual rainfall to feed 2/3rds of its cultivated land, there is no questioning that such an event had a ‘catalytic effect’ on Syria. Transforming it from breadbasket to “bare-basket” as wheat production fell significantly (Kelly et al., 2015).As an agricultural region reliant on annual rainfall to feed 2/3rds of its cultivated land, there is no questioning that such an event had a ‘catalytic effect’ on Syria. Transforming it from breadbasket to “bare-basket” as wheat production fell significantly (Kelly et al., 2015).

In response to ‘agricultural collapse’, farming families migrated in mass to urban peripheries, increasing the strain on city resources and becoming ‘the heart of the developing unrest’ as the Assad regime failed to respond to the issue (Kelly et al., 2015).

Studies of historical and ongoing conflicts provide evidence of conflict as activated by climate change and are crucial warning-windows into the future of countries experiencing state and climate vulnerability - and beyond (Bowles et al., 2015). With specific reference to COP21 negotiations, if the devastating environmental effects of climate change aren’t enough to stimulate effective mitigation policies, then perhaps past conflict, present terror threats and the imminence of future global conflict will be?

Suggested by Bowles et al (2015), the public are most motivated to mitigate climate change when it’s framed as an issue holding potential, direct consequences for them. Thus, I argue if climate change is viewed as a ‘threat to human security’, then perhaps efforts to effectively adapt to living sustainably will be more welcomed?

One can only hope.